Thursday, 30 October 2014

Migration Patterns

So, it seems there is a bit of a migration happening at the moment. I found my way through to Podion a few nights ago, and there were four cyno frigates on station. Well, three after I used my alpha panther. But you get the idea.

I was there to collect a stash of crap. There were half a dozen ships and 450M of crap which had been there for about a year, collecting dust, since I moved out of NC Dot. Back then I had all my caps, save for my cheaply bought Chimera, out in Immensea. It had taken me quite a while to move alll the shit out there via wormholes, and then we were redeploying to Stain, to have a crack at some Russians because of reasons. I got sick of moving shit around in my Nidhoggur(s) and had a half-arsed go at moving the crap out of null. So there it was in Podion.

Seems that there's a lot of people doing the exact same thing, punching out massive numbers of jumps of cap ships before the 4th of November. In the hour I was in Podion, there were no fewer than 30 carrier jumps, and 4 dread jumps, plus a JF or two. A lot of activity half an hour before downtime as nullbears rationalise their existence and get the logistics sorted before Phoebe drops and they can only do it twice a week.

I think that by and large the player base has come to terms with this. Like a band-aid being ripped off quickly, the paain is gone now. Indeed, the majority of people who are at least semi-active will have made their decisions.

You can also see this in sov changes. Brothers of Tangra has been rationalised - 50+ systems and 3,500 scrubby botlords were handed over to Shadow of xXDeathXx holus bolus last week, comprising a few constellations in the Dronelands and several corporations. There's theories that these AFK neckbeards are just abandoning sov and packing up to highsec to avoid the jump changes and the decrease of utility in access to highsec, but I'd be wary of assuming that losing a few hundred rental peons and changing sov and corporations between allliances correlates directly with organisations abanddoning far-flung space.

From what I've seen, as I lurk these areas for the upcoming murderfest, there is still a lot of industry going on in these areas. It is overstating things to say that it's now impossible to live out there - after all, if you can produce 1,000 Garde II's a month, what else do you need to carrier rat 23.75/7? You have virtually no consumables beyond POS fuel and topes, and there are ice belts. Ice belts that are heavily raided and farmed, mind you, so I don't see a lack of local supply.

For the non-carrier ratters, a couple of industry guys with a BPO can supply T1 ammo fairly effectively. Ships can be a bit more of an issue, but again, not impossible. The difficulty of just buying them in jita and using a shopping and carting service provied by your alliance or corp logistician is maybe worse than it was before - but if it's truly abysmal, then in theory you have two options: produce locally or use a wormhole. The first option is what CCP wants to see in nullsec, clearly - organisations producing locally and consuming locally and fighting locally, not having 80% of toons existing in highsec to drive the sinews of nullsec.

Without a doubt, there are large ructions underway. Just looking at some of the Dotlan behaviour recently:
Brothers of Tangra. 350 systems to 144 and falling; 12K members to 5,500.
Shadow of xXDEATHXx. Recieved the majority of those losses via the transfer. 
Greater Western Co-Prospecrity Sphere. Definite trimming of the ranks going on.

There is also a general increase in interest in w-space, due to the buffing of blue poo, addition of nullsec relic and data to C1, C2 and C3 space, the above-mentioned nerf to supercaps online, and so on. BUGRY is seeing a lot of new join requests, some from spais and clearly unsuitable dweebs, and others more genuine and honest. It is definitely good. It will be interesting to see if this is a sustained population icnrease or if it will ebb and flow, because what has happened over the past 3 months in w-space is likely to be what happens to nullsec: people panic, throw the toys from the cot, move out, find that life is not better and grass is not greener, and then return to their old ways and old haunts. We shall see - after all, migrations happen on instinct, not by organisation.

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