After the "field tests" of the blap Phoenix, versus in the first instance Dropbears Anonymous (blap blap blap) and Lazerhawks (er...died in a fire) my opinion on the upcoming capital rebalance has hardened.
The advantage of the blap Cruise Phoenix is that, once you've resolved the equation of missiles vs sig radius x speed, there's nowhere for your foes to hide and no way for them to avoid or shed damage. You just blap away to edge of grid, as BAERS found out.
Of course, LZHX avoided being blapped aside from one loki, due to their wake limiter subs and AB legions, but that's as much shitty TP skills as anything else. Our Vigil pilots didn't have the requisite 2nd tier skill trained which actually makes TP's effective; instead of 86% per TP to a maximum of 6, they were at 37%. This matters a LOT. A lot more than, say, 20% less capacitor use.
Anyway, the thing about dreads in combat is they are a one shot item; once you are committed you are committed. Once you hit siege, you have a closed system for 5 minutes. Lazerhawks primed me literally 1 second after I started a cycle, which was bad luck, but it just illstrates the point: unable to refit due to the carrier being bumped out of range and no Nestors on field, you have a closed system. If you get neuted out, if the DPS overwhelms your tank, you die. Simple as that. No refits, nada. It happens.
here's the thing. under larrikin's new capital system, dreads are going to be frankly useless. Why?
1) They will be (partly) susceptible to TD's and MD's (missile disruptors). This alone would be enough to obviate the need to change blap dreads because the line between blapping and not is qite fine; the sig radius difference between the Loki that died and the Legions which didn't is less than 5%. Either way you look at it, being susceptible to a TD or MD will reduce performance overall.
2) Dread DPS is going to become irrelevant except for XL Citadels. In the new Citadel system even Large citadels will still be susceptible to large-ish fleets of high-DPS battleships or massed bomber fleets. There will be very few reasons to deploy a Dread unless the Citadel defences are nasty. If they are nasty, you have FAX. If your XL Citadel can doomsday and kill capitals, you'd be fucked in the head to deploy a Dread because...
3) Expanded grids, and Carriers with projectable fighters, may invalidate Citadel gun defences entirely. I mean, think about it. if your max lock range is 250km and POS's and hence Citadels rarely shoot you beyond 300km (trust me on this I am the POS guru), and you can drive fighters across grid and shoot without a lock, why deploy a Dread within range of a Citadel at all?just fly your fighters through space to attack the Citadel and keep your carrier safely beyond the range of the defences.
4) The reduction in EHP of Capitals will make a 5 minute siege cycle a fatality. it was already quite fatal for my Phoenix; I died with 2 minutes left on the cycle. True, it wasn't exactly the most tanked Dread fit, I had no cap to even run a DCU due to 20 neuting legions and probably 30-40 medium neuts cycling, but we are talking about Larrikin reducing EHP substantially.
The only way I'd have survived longer was either a) refit b) Capital ASB c) Capital Capacitor injector tank (which is unrealistic anyway due to, viz. lack of slots).
5) The need to deaggress to refit; sure I was pretty boned, but with less EHP to burn, you can't necessarily afford a full minte to deaggress in order to refit from gank to tank. This mechanic is arguable, because it is so vital to current WH Dread meta (or any Dread which isn't at risk of DD or blapping from massive firepower), but its absence will be uite inimicable.
6) Dreads are likely to remain static. This is the worst part about the upcoming changes; immobility forced on a Dreadnought by the Siege cycle is utter cancer, especially given the new role of Carriers and the mobility they will gain with MWD's or AB's. Even if you imagine Carriers having a 300m/s speed (and partial web immunity) they will be able to, with a combination of an immobile Dread to zoidberg away from, a Dread which is suffering stacked TD's or MD's, a Dread which has had its heavy weaponry replaced by shitty "High-Angle Weapons" aka BS guns on roids, or actual Capital Guns with extra-nerfed trcking, and the ability to fit a burst tank....I mean, really? Carriers will just kite away from a Dreadnought as much as possible, being unable to be hit by non-tracking TD's guns while driving squadrons of fighters across a 2,500km expanded grid to assfuck the opposition.
7) Nerfed weapons. Like, if the blap dread is a maths problem at the moment, compounded by the need to pile support (and logi to keep the support up) onto field, then it's a maths and manpower issue all rolled into one. Are blap dreads powerful? Yes. Are they limited? Hells yes. Do Dread guns need to be nerfed and replaced with BS guns which do shit DPS? No.
The part that Larrikin seems to miss is the LZHX vs BAERS endgames. Blap dreads are considered to be what we did to BAERS all the time; the Dread just starts alphaing shit off the field and everyone loses 750M ISK T3's and there's QQ and biscuits.
However, without blap dreads, the LZHX outcome is more likely. If you cannot alpha T3's, then logi begins to become dominant. Logi at the moment is far, far too strong. Lazerhawks had 3-5 Guardians (I wasn't counting, as I was too busy) and due to the inability of the Phoenix to get traction and alpha things, our DPS was just not enough to punch through them (and we lacked neuts and ECM). An extra 2,000 paper DPS of BS guns wouldn't have made a lick of difference in the fight, which is what these naff HAW's are going to be.
To put it in perspective, my Phoenix out of siege nearly alpha'd a Stiletto. It couldn't alhpa Legions. And you think that having Cruise Missile level application and 2,000 DPS HAW's is better than having better than (subcap) Cruise Missile worth of Citadel Cruise and 4,800 DPS?
Get off the crack pipe. So, i really question the upcoming Capital system. Dreads are doing to be obsoleted instantly by overpowered Carriers.